The Black Swan Evidence

By Paigham Mustafa

Ramadan is commonly understood to be founded upon the belief that saum means fasting, namely abstaining from food and drink from dawn to dusk for one lunar month each year. Yet this inherited understanding raises a number of significant theological and ethical questions when examined directly in light of the Quran.

The first concerns the narrative of Mary, the mother of Jesus. The Quran recounts that she ate and drank to her satisfaction while nevertheless observing her saum (Verse19:26). Would an exemplary woman, described in the Quran as chosen and sanctified, be acting in defiance of God’s decree? Secondly, would God ordain that a lactating mother caring for a newborn child abstain from nourishment throughout the day for thirty consecutive days?

 Such questions are not rhetorical provocations; they demand principled resolution grounded in the Quran itself.

A coherent approach to these questions requires methodological clarity. The Quran instructs believers to seek judgement from God alone (Verse6:114), to follow what has been sent down without following other authorities (Verse7:3), and affirms that there is no alteration or abrogation of God’s words (Verse6:115; Verse18:27). Furthermore, it emphasises contextual reading and cautions against fragmenting the revelation (Verse2:85; Verse15:90–91).

These interpretative principles necessitate that the Quran be read as a self-consistent whole. If a particular understanding of a term produces contradiction within the text, that understanding must be reconsidered.

The so-called “Black Swan” approach offers a helpful analytical metaphor. If one asserts that “all swans are white,” the discovery of a single black swan falsifies the claim. Similarly, if one asserts that saum unequivocally means ritual fasting defined as abstention from food and drink, then no verse of the Quran should contradict that meaning. Yet the account of Mary in (Verse19:26) functions precisely as such a “black swan”. In that verse, she is instructed to eat and drink and, if questioned, to declare that she has vowed a saum to the Most Merciful and will not speak to any human being that day. The vow is explicitly linked to silence, not to abstention from nourishment.

Mary is portrayed in the Quran as a model of obedience and piety. It is inconceivable that she would simultaneously eat and drink while falsely claiming to be observing a divinely ordained fast, were saum to mean abstention from food and drink. To maintain the ritual fasting definition in this context would either imply contradiction within the revelation or cast aspersions upon the character of a woman whom the Quran elevates above reproach. The more coherent conclusion is that saum denotes abstention in a broader sense — a deliberate act of self-restraint — the specific form of which is determined by context. In Mary’s case, it was abstention from speech.

The root S’W’M in Arabic conveys the meaning of withholding, restraining, or abstaining. As an act of self-discipline, saum signifies the conscious regulation of the self. This understanding is reinforced in (Verse2:183), where saum is prescribed so that believers may attain conviction. The purpose clause is crucial: the objective is the cultivation of the Self, moral vigilance, and disciplined conduct. The verse does not define saum as hunger or thirst; rather, it situates it within the ethical development of the believer. The emphasis is spiritual and behavioural, not merely physiological.

When saum is reduced to ritual fasting — understood primarily as refraining from food and drink — the ethical dimension risks being eclipsed by formalism. The Quranic intent, however, is transformative. Self-discipline encompasses restraint of speech, control of anger, moderation of desire, and conscious alignment of one’s will with divine guidance. Mary’s vow of silence exemplifies precisely such disciplined restraint at a moment of immense personal trial. Her saum was a strategic act of moral composure and reliance upon God, not an exercise in caloric deprivation.

Moreover, when ritual fasting is treated as an absolute and universal decree without contextual sensitivity, ethical tensions arise. Consider the implications for pregnant or lactating women. The Quran consistently affirms that God does not intend hardship for believers and that concessions are provided in cases of illness or difficulty (Verse2:185). If the purpose of saum is moral refinement rather than physical suffering, then imposing practices that jeopardise health or well-being contradicts the overarching Quranic ethos of mercy and balance.

Contemporary medical research raises further considerations. Fasting, practised as a reversal of normal diurnal rhythms, has been shown in various studies to disrupt sleep patterns and hormonal cycles. Statistical analyses comparing children exposed in utero to Ramadan fasting with those who were not suggest associations with lower cognitive outcomes and higher incidence of certain chronic conditions. There is evidence that fasting may exacerbate renal impairment in vulnerable patients and pose risks for pregnant women, including gestational diabetes and induced labour. Although healthy individuals may tolerate temporary food restriction, dehydration — particularly in hot climates and extended daylight hours — can have harmful consequences even for the otherwise well.Educational authorities in places such as Berlin and the United Kingdom have expressed concern that prolonged abstention from food and drink during school hours may impair concentration and academic performance. Workplace productivity has also been reported to decline during Ramadan fasting. Furthermore, cultural practices surrounding heavy consumption at Suhur and Iftar often negate any potential health benefit and may in fact produce additional harm. While modest weight loss may occur, it frequently reverses thereafter.

It is important to acknowledge that classical jurists permitted exemptions for the sick, travellers, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and those at risk of harm. Some scholars, including figures such as Ibn Qudamah and others cited in traditional literature, even allowed skipping the fast in cases of minor hardship. Yet the very breadth of these exemptions raises a deeper question: if the essence of saum is self-discipline, is it coherent to define it primarily as physical abstinence, especially when that abstinence may undermine health, intellect, or social responsibility?

The Quran presents Islam as a means of establishing justice, balance, and moral excellence. It does not advocate self-inflicted harm or ritual formalism devoid of ethical substance. When (Verse2:183) connects saum to virtue, the focus is interior transformation. The believer is called to exercise mastery over the ego, to restrain harmful impulses, to cultivate patience, and to demonstrate solidarity with the vulnerable through conscious empathy and charity. Physical hunger may symbolise dependence upon God, but it is not synonymous with the disciplined consciousness that the Quran seeks to nurture.

Reconsidering saum as abstention in the comprehensive sense of self-restraint harmonises the narrative of Mary with the legislative passages of Surah al-Baqarah. It preserves the integrity of the Quran’s internal coherence and avoids imputing inconsistency either to the revelation or to exemplary figures within it. It also aligns with the Quranic principle that God intends ease and does not desire hardship for humanity (Verse2:185).

Thus, the central thrust of saum is not ritual deprivation but moral cultivation. It is a structured period of heightened self-awareness in which the believer refrains from destructive speech, unethical conduct, excess consumption, and heedlessness. Abstention from food and drink may serve as one symbolic expression within a broader ethical discipline, but it cannot exhaust the meaning of the term. The “black swan” of (Verse19:26) decisively demonstrates that saum transcends mere fasting.

In conclusion, a careful, contextually grounded reading of the Quran reveals saum to be an act of deliberate self-discipline aimed at achieving righteousness. To equate it exclusively with abstaining from food and drink is to narrow a rich ethical concept into a ritual form that may, in certain circumstances, conflict with the Quran’s overarching commitment to mercy, coherence, and human well-being. The Quran calls believers not to hunger, but to moral mastery; not to thirst, but to transformative self-restraint.

© 2026 Paigham Mustafa

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Paigham Mustafa has been engaged in the study and research of the Quran since 1988 and has contributed to the print media for over 37 years. His first major work, The Quran: God’s Message to Mankind, was published in 2016, followed by The Divine Blueprint in 2022. He is also the author of How To Be Human, published in 2025. His exegesis of the Quran often challenges traditional readings, offering instead a reasoned and objective analysis of the original text. His works provide essential guidance,  helping readers gain a clearer, more informed understanding of Islam. This helps address many of the issues that stem from misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and misconceptions

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